Biden unlikely to impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports to the U.S, analysts say

Iran’s recent missile and drone strike on Israel is predicted not to trigger significant sanctions action on Iran’s oil exports from the Biden administration.

Analysts say this forecast is based on concerns about potential oil price hikes and the risk of upsetting China, a major purchaser of Iranian oil.

Following Tehran’s weekend attack, which, as per the reports, was in retaliation for an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1, House Republican leaders criticised President Joe Biden for what they perceive as a lack of enforcement of existing measures. 

They announced plans to introduce a series of bills this week to tighten sanctions on Iran.

The dilemma that now knocks on the administration’s door is how to address such attacks without escalating tensions, increasing oil prices, or alienating China, a crucial player in the Iranian oil market. 

Meanwhile, Washington has emphasised its goal of preventing the Gaza conflict from expanding into a broader regional war, which includes keeping Iran from becoming directly involved.

Despite mounting pressure to penalise Iran, some analysts doubt that the Biden administration will significantly increase enforcement of existing sanctions on Iranian oil exports, which are vital to Iran’s economy. 

Several officers have expressed scepticism about the administration’s willingness to enforce sanctions aggressively.

Back in 2018, Former President Donald Trump reinstated U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil after withdrawing from the international nuclear deal with Tehran.

The Biden administration has attempted to combat evasion of these measures by imposing sanctions on companies in China, the United Arab Emirates, and elsewhere. 

However, despite these efforts, analysts say that Iran’s oil exports currently range from 1.6 to 1.8 million barrels per day which is close to the pre-sanctions level of 2 million barrels per day.

The potential impact on gasoline prices is cited as one reason why Biden may be hesitant to impose strict measures on Iran’s oil exports, particularly in an election year.